100 Days of TikTok Turmoil

💡 TOP STORIES

100 DAYS

Remember when TikTok was fun? Over the past 100 days, the short-form video giant has turned into a geopolitical football, kicked back and forth between U.S. and Chinese interests. The latest chapter began on January 19, 2025, when TikTok shut itself down and disappeared from Apple and Google app stores. Then the next day, President Trump granted TikTok a 75-day stay of execution. As that deadline expired, he extended it another 75 days.

This ongoing soap opera isn't just politics. It's reshaping the creator landscape in real time.

I’ve been warning about this since the original ban and divestiture effort was announced last spring and predicted in December that TikTok would become a political football between China and the U.S. -- long before most other pundits caught on. Here’s what happened, and what’s coming next..

The uncertainty has thrown TikTok into chaos. Its Shop division is reeling from restructuring, with key decisions moving from U.S. executives to China-based leadership (with Nico Le Bourgeois just the latest casualty). Top executives jumped ship, including Blake Chandlee, TikTok's ad chief, along with at least eight other senior leaders. Employee morale? It's sinking fast, with reports of skyrocketing mental health leaves.

Brands aren’t waiting around either. In Q1, cautious marketers slashed TikTok ad spend dramatically. Eight of TikTok’s top ten advertising categories cut budgets, sending ad prices plunging 30–40%. Competitors like Instagram, YouTube Shorts, and even Pinterest have eagerly absorbed those redirected dollars.

Creators are hedging their bets too. With each new ban scare, they've gotten savvier. Now they're proactively spreading their content across Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, Snapchat, and even briefly exploring China’s RedNote.  In short, doing anything possible to avoid getting burned if TikTok goes dark for good.

Despite the turmoil, viewer engagement has mostly bounced back, but growth has cooled. TikTok still boasts high daily usage, but cautious users and creators are pulling back, knowing their favorite app could vanish overnight.

What's Next? I See Three Scenarios:

• Forced Sale or Divestiture: TikTok’s U.S. business gets sold to an American buyer, finally stabilizing operations after some initial turbulence.

• Full Rebound: Diplomatic maneuvers or policy reversals allow TikTok to remain under ByteDance ownership with minimal disruption.

• Continued Limbo: The uncertainty drags on through more extensions, slowly chipping away at user confidence and creator enthusiasm.

My prediction? A rebound isn’t happening anytime soon, and it’s unlikely next year too. Caving to China’s demands isn't in the cards. The most likely path forward is a forced sale, but that process will take time. I predict very little real progress before this latest 75-day extension expires, which means even more turmoil ahead. (My TikTok Countdown Clock is still ticking. 51 days left, if you want to bookmark it.)

That means continued limbo is the most likely outcome, at least through summer. If a sale doesn’t materialize, TikTok will sink deeper into an ocean of malaise, as 2026 marketing budgets shift to more predictable platforms and creators diversify even further.

In any case, a swift rebound seems increasingly unlikely given the heated political landscape of tariff wars and pointed exchanges. And that means more employee attrition and less wholehearted commitment to the platform.

Creators and brands should stop procrastinating and diversify now.

My biggest takeaway from this TikTok saga? Never build your business on just one platform. Adaptability isn’t just smart; it’s survival.

I’ve been critical of TikTok’s missteps here but make no mistake: I’m still a huge fan. It launched countless great creators, delivered daily joy, and developed some of today’s sharpest execs. A forced exit from the U.S. wouldn’t just be a political story. It would be a tragedy for the entire creator economy.

Want an in-depth look at the last 100 days and what’s next? Grab my free 12-page report here.

NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME

In a related story, Instagram released its free Edits app, designed to give Capcut users an alternative – and further protect Reels from DoubleT.  Videos are optimized for Instagram but saved in your camera roll.  It’s easy to use and has some cool features for IG users, including inspiration from trending Reels, in-app Instagram analytics and more.   But it’s mostly a Capcut clone.  

But based on my testing, it’s not ready for prime time yet.  Uploading to Instagram was easy (and I love that it will dub and lipsync to other languages for me).  But it barfed when I tried to upload to Facebook.  And then after I made a few more changes it stopped uploading to Instagram too. I also tried using a sticker.  It was easy to place, but didn’t render in my video export. Exporting to the phone’s camera roll (to repost to IG or YT) was also way too hard.  Despite claiming that it exported, I had to hunt through the Reels camera roll and then re-export it to my phone.  Heavy Reels creators should absolutely consider it, as there are rumors that the algorithm will give preference to Edit-created videos.  But you might want to wait until version 1.1.

· Related: 7M Instagram Edits downloads reported in the first week.

WARNING: AI WILL QUICKLY DISRUPT AFFILIATE AND LIVE SHOPPING

AI companies are targeting product discovery, affiliate links, checkout flows and live shopping, according to three related developments.  Browsers first, as Perplexity will launch its own custom varient, according to a revealing new interview with their CEO.  And if Google is forced to divest Chrome as part of its illegal monopoly, OpenAI will snap it up (could cost as much as $50B).  But even more revealing, OpenAI is building shopping functionality into ChatGPT, including pricing, ratings, and Shopify checkout.  Together, they reveal a future where AI agents discover, recommend, and even buy products for us. 

Creators should develop those digital twins immediately – if only to test how this would work, and to hedge their affiliate and shopping revenue. This might be the most important story of the week.  

• Related: Bain on how brands should optimize for AI SEO and the rise of agentic influencers.

• Related: As traditional search fades, you need these practical tips to improve your ranking in AI SEO.

😎 SPONSOR

Umi Games, part of Whalar Group, partnered with Vaseline to launch a Fortnite skin modeled after its Screen Block SPF. Created with Ogilvy Canada and Ogilvy Singapore, the campaign raised awareness among gamers about the damaging effects of blue light on skin, mirroring the harm caused by sun exposure. Learn more about the game:

💡 PLATFORMS

YOUTUBE

• Happy 20^th Birthday YouTube: Although I celebrated back in Feb on the anniversary of the URL registration.  YouTube got into the spirit with some fun facts – including 20 billion videos uploaded.

• Auto-Dubbing for All: Now every creator in the partner program can use auto-dubbing.  Here’s how to make it work.

• Greatly Exaggerated: The death of the cookie is, well, dead.

META

• I Prefer Fish:  Forget the metaverse, it’s all about The Goose now.  

• Out, Out Damn Spam: Facebook wants to make its feed more relevant while stamping out spammy posts. 

• New Threads URL: Threads.NET is now Threads.COM – I wonder how much that URL cost them (TLDR, a lot).

• That’s Alotta Clams:Meta could lose $7B in ad revenue due to the US/China trade war (but what will it gain if TikTok flounders?)

OTHER PLATFORMS

• Roblox Adds Regional Pricing:  Creators looking to sell digital items can now let Roblox automatically set the “optimal local price”.

• Family Snaps: Snapchat rolls out a new “Family Safety Hub”, built with Common Sense Media.Lorem

💡 QUIBIS

DISRUPTION

• Podcasting in China: Podcasting is a global phenomenon, as Tencent is looking to acquire Chinese podcast platform Ximalaya.

• Venture Capital Secrets:  @Sam Lessin, lead at Slow Ventures, releases his “State of the VC in 2025”.  You might be saying 'who cares,' but he leans hard into 'investing in memes', and why VCs should back 'great stories with growing communities of belief.'  Sounds like entrepreneurial creators with strong communities to me.

CREATOR MONETIZATION

• Why Is This So Hard?  Revolve sued for $50m for enticing creators to promote without disclosure. @Jon Youshaei had a great take. Where’s the FTC on all of this?

• Linktree Leans Into Creator Monetization:  With a Kajabi hookup and new features, Link-in-bio leader LinkTree will now help creators build out their owned revenue streams with courses, digital products, affiliate links and shopping commissions.

• Follow Up from Last Week.  “Emma” the AI Talent Agent got back to me -  finally - after a week of working “nights, weekends and holidays”.  She offered $61.07 for 3 Instagram reels.  Still no response on my LinkedIn offer.

• Black Friday:  The de minimis rule ends on May 2nd, which means no more tariff free shipping from China.  Many creator products will become MUCH more expensive. Here's how some buyers are coping. 

• Related: Frightening story about a Kickstarter creator crushed by tariffs.  

BRANDS AND MARKETING

• Tribes Matter: Inside the latest “Precision Influencer Marketing” tactics to optimize your creator campaigns and break through the noise.  The critical success factor: “hyperfocused use of consumer data” before engaging with creators.

• Falling Knife: Ad spend will be down in 2025 – as we warned two weeks ago. Expect the pullback to last 12-24 months.  Are you ready?

• Align Objectives:  Good one-pager on how brands can build a creator advisory board from @jeff frommer’s Owners Only newsletter.

OTHER CREATOR ECONOMY

• Sign Your Work: Adobe launches “Content Authenticity” into beta to enable creators to digitally sign their work and partners with LinkedIn to integrate Verifications as well.

• Creator Vision:  Good interview with @daniel abas from the Creators Guild of America about their new legal rider and more. 

• Citron Steps Down:  Discord has a new CEO.

• We Are Not Amused: Congrats to @Caleb Denison for going out on his own (thanks for the heads up @Publish Press).  His former employer Digital Trends must not be happy, as they DMCA’d his first YouTube video.

CREATOR TECH – AI, WEB3, VR, MORE

• Wolfman AI: Automated DJs have been around for years, but now AI is muscling in on the act.

• I Want My AI-MTV:  OpenAI releases a tutorial on how to make music videos with Sora.

• Content Transformation: Interesting AMA post from an entrepreneur building a content repurposing tool for creators.

RESEARCH

• Teens Wary of Social:  A new Pew research report found that almost half of teens think they spend too much time on social, and that it harms their peers – but only 14% say it harms them directly (that’s still too high). But a big majority say that social keeps them connected to friends and allows them to show off their creativity.  Still, 44% of teens are cutting back on social use.

• ICYMI: Goldman Sachs mapped the future of the creator economy. TLDR: AI’s taking over, TikTok’s collapse is Meta’s gain, and by 2030 you’ll either be a creator... or be working for one.  Download the full report here.

100% written by me – no human or AI ghostwriters were involved in the production (except for the cover art!).

Like this free newsletter?  Buy me a coffee and say thanks!  Or let’s do a meetup in your town.

I've built and sold multiple creator economy startups to top media companies - including Discovery and Paramount. Subscribe for free to get this newsletter every Monday.

Let me know what you think – email me at [email protected]. Thanks for reading and see you around the internet.