💡 TOP STORIES

BREAKING: TIKTOK DEVELOPING NEW APP, SALE SEEMS LIKELY IN THE FALL

Well, I didn’t have this on my dance card, but late Sunday The Information published a story from anonymous sources about how TikTok is developing a brand new app called M2, which could be available as early as September. The existing app will likely be sunset for US users in 2026. In addition, a sale of the US operation to a group of US-based investors also seems likely this fall.

None of this seems finalized, although the app must be pretty far along. Chinese government officials would need to approve any sale - but as we talked about last week, TikTok seems to have been shunted aside from the overall tariff wars.

MY 2025 THEME: SCALE DRIVES SPECIALIZATION

I opened my predictions with this big idea, and it still holds. Creators are doubling down on private communities, going niche, and focusing on meaningful scale. Legacy metrics like views, subscribers, likes, and followers are increasingly meaningless. I’ll revisit this (and all my predictions) again in December.

✅ PASS: NAILED IT

CREATOR EVENTS MUSHROOM – AND WILT ✅

The explosion of creator events? Absolutely real. Hardly a week goes by without another new one launching.  The backlash?  Signs of fatigue are starting to show.  Nas Summit has scaled back from a global slate to a handful of events, and The Information trimmed its summit from a full day to just a half.

It’s a bit early to tell, but it appears Nas Summit has cut back from 7 global events last year to what looks like just 2 in 2025.  And The Information summit shrank from a full day to a half-day.  

What I missed: Every non-creator event now needs a creator strategy. It’s playing out at NAB (my fault), but also at CES, VivaTech, GTC, IBC, MIPCOM, and more. If you’re running a legacy event without a clear creator integration plan, you’re already behind.  Pro tip: don’t treat them like press. Treat them like the future. 

• Pro Tip: Need help with your creator/event strategy?  Ping me.

CREATOR PRODUCTS COLLAPSE ✅

The creator-product gold rush is slowing—but hasn’t completely collapsed. Prime Hydration market share cratered by 90%. Chamberlain Coffee is facing funding headwinds, and the new tariff war has thrown the supply chain into a tizzy.  Products still launch, but the easy money has evaporated.  Want to escape the collapse?  Lean into digital, community and content products.  Fans will still buy, but only when trust comes first.

RICHES IN NICHES ✅

I predicted that mass appeal would give way to focused creators and niche topics.  From food science to forklift repair, this is absolutely happening.  Niche creators own their category, convert better and have die-hard fans who don’t just engage… they buy.  Brands are catching up too, swapping reach for relevance and building long-term relationships with vertical experts.

Need examples?

• Emily English is approaching 3M followers. Her latest cookbook just launched, and she’s landed brand deals with Harvey Nichols and Boots.

• Big Manny (Emanuel Wallace) has nearly 4M followers, was named TikTok’s Education Creator of the Year, and now partners with BMW, BBC Bitesize, and The Earthshot Prize.

• Maxine Sharf (aka Maxi’s Kitchen) turned comfort food into a business, growing to 3M+ followers mostly since 2023. Her dumpling content went viral, and she now partners with brands like Our Place and Tillamook.

Yes, broad creators still exist. But trying to be everything to everyone isn’t a strategy…  it’s a death sentence.

EGC BLOSSOMS ✅

Employee-Generated Content (EGC) is on the rise. United and Southwest let flight crews share their lives at 35,000 feet. L’Oréal, Papa Johns, Macy’s, Marks & Spencer, and Adobe are leaning in too… turning real employees into authentic brand storytellers.

More brands are sniffing around, trying to unlock internal storytelling without tripping over HR. The next evolution? Smart orgs will map their creator graph the way they track org charts.

Want to tap into this trend? Follow @Melissa Laurie.  She’s writing the book on it (literally) and building workshops and tools to help brands activate creators hiding inside corporate walls.

PLATFORMS ARE NOT YOUR FRIEND ✅

This one’s an easy win (unfortunately).  We’ve seen a steady flood of bans, cuts and chaos.  TikTok’s fate is still up in the air.  YouTube’s algorithm tweaks tanked back-catalog licensing.  And with platforms training their own AI models, your IP has already been sucked into the borg.  In the first half of 2025, creators began diversifying en masse into owned channels. If you haven’t followed them yet, you’re living on borrowed reach… and the rent just went up.

CREATORS ACCELERATE TRADITIONAL MEDIA’S DECLINE ✅

Creators aren’t just talent. They’re producer, director, writer, and mogul too. They’re not just promoting products; they’re launching them. They’re running ad campaigns, filling screens, and reshaping what “media” even means.  And platforms know it. From Tubi and Xumo to Prime, Peacock, and beyond, every streamer is racing to lock in creator partnerships. 

Meanwhile, traditional media keeps sliding. In the U.S., more adults now get their news from social media than TV. Cable and satellite lost another 1.4 million subscribers in Q1. Broadcast and cable revenue is projected to drop nearly 10% this year. And for the first time ever, platforms like YouTube, TikTok, and LinkedIn will attract more ad dollars than traditional media.

Will creators save Hollywood? Doesn’t matter… because now that YouTube is the biggest thing on TV, creators already won.

CREATORS BUILD EMPIRES ✅

From Dhar Mann to Mythical, Alex Cooper to Alan Chikin Chow, there are at least 15 creator studios within five miles of Burbank Airport—and more on the way. Add Dude Perfect in Texas, Mark Rober in NorCal, and MrBeast in North Carolina, and it’s clear: the era of creator empires has arrived. This is no longer a trend.  It’s an industry.

What I missed? The great migration of traditional media execs to the “dark side.” From longtime convert Sean Atkins to Scott Lewers, Tyler Chow, Zach Miller, and Andrew Yaffee, the talent is flowing fast into creator-led studios… and the pace is only picking up. Come to the dark side… We’ve got cookies!  Expect even more in the latter half of 2025.

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GLOBAL FRONTIERS ⏳

I remain bullish on the global creator economy long term…  but 2025 has been slower than I expected. AI dubbing still holds promise, but as I learned firsthand moderating a VidCon session, the tech isn’t ready for emotionally resonant high-quality localization. Meanwhile, CPMs remain low across much of the non-English-speaking world, and platform payouts remain inconsistent.

That said, there are bright spots everywhere. Crazy XYZ is fast becoming the Mark Rober of India. Althea Lim’s Gushcloud continues to push creator talent across continents. The new CreatorsHQ in Dubai is elevating MENA voices. And in Africa, David Adeleke remains an intrepid advocate for visibility, funding, and infrastructure.

The momentum is real but uneven. Watch this space though. It’s still the future of global media.

AVERAGE REVENUE PER FAN ARRIVES⏳

 As I predicted, “Subscribers, Likes, Followers, and Views are slouching toward irrelevance”, leaving room for more meaningful metrics. Average Revenue per Fan (ARF) hasn’t been crowned the gold standard for creators yet, but it’s clearly gaining traction.  Creators are acting more like airlines, yield-managing across merch, memberships, subscriptions, live streams, and sponsors. New tools like GYST are popping up to help track and optimize ARF, and I hear YouTube may be preparing a deeper push into it later this year. Meanwhile, platforms like CreatorIQ are still testing the waters with multi-metric dashboards. For brands, ROI and conversion remain the north star. But for creators looking to grow sustainably? ARF is fast becoming the tail wagging the creator dog.

❌ FAIL: Let’s Pretend I Never Said That

CREATORS DISRUPT EDUCATION ❌

Arguably, the Trump administration has done more to disrupt education in 2025 than creators have. That said, creators are making inroads. Hank and John Green’s ASU partnership now lets students earn college credit via YouTube. A recent survey found that 73% of students prefer online classes to in-person, and nearly 15% of the U.S. population took an online course last year.

But much of this still feels like digitizing a manual process—not true reinvention. Creators are nibbling at the edges, not rewriting the playbook. Maybe the back half of 2025 brings more breakthroughs. So far? I'm not feeling it.

FINAL TALLY

✅ PASS: 7

⏳ INCOMPLETE: 2

❌ FAIL: 1

Not bad.  Trending towards a 90% success rate – which is pretty darn good.  Or perhaps I grade like your favorite high-school teacher. 

15 QUICK TRENDS RATED

I also came up with 15 additional QUIBI-style predictions last year too.  Here’s a quick look at how those are faring. 

✅ PASS: NAILED IT

• Governments Tighten Social Media Rules to Protect Kids:  From Australia to Virginia, Nebraska and NY, this is absolutely happening. ✅

• The Age of Social Begins to Wane:  GenZ is fed up.  87% took steps to curb social use and over half wish it didn’t exist. ✅

• Creators Redefine Trust and Journalism:  Journalistic trust is shifting.  New tools will accelerate the trend, like Sophia-Smith Galar’s new tool Sophiana! ✅

• From Theft of Content to Theft of Person: Don’t say I didn’t warn you. ✅

• The Rise of VTubers and Faceless Channels: Vtubers are exploding, with many surpassing traditional live-streamers.  But AI-generated headless channels are where all the heat is. ✅

• The Center Cannot Hold: CPMs prove the point: ultra-nano creators for brand-specific campaigns outperform mid-tier creators by 1.5–2× in engagement and ROI. ✅

• YouTube Becomes Top Global TV Streamer:  YouTube accounts for nearly 45% of total TV viewing.  It’s now the biggest thing on TV. ✅

• YouTube remains the RevShare King:  Sorry Kajabi, Patreon and others.  No one even comes close to YouTube. ✅

• Lofi Rises: Audiences crave low-drama and authentic storytelling. LinkedIn leads the way with simple, honest videos. But fans want more highly produced creator videos too – especially on TV. This is more of a Lofi / Hifi rise, but I’ll still take the W. ✅

• Creator Financing Cracks Emerge: Many of the early platforms are struggling as ZIRPS fade while bad actors expand.  The trend is now around equity.  We’ll see how that plays out.  ✅

• TikTok Remains Under Fire:  From the EU leaning into advertising issues to Ireland levying 530M euros for data protection issues, a year-long Albania ban, Australia’s social media minimum age requirements, it’s not just the US targeting DoubleT. ✅

• Agency Consolidation Continues:  Captiv8 to Publicis.  Lionize to gen.video.  New Kith to We Are Era.  BR Media to Publicis.  Mavely to Later.  The relentless pace continues (HT Chris Erwin). ✅

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• More Brands Become Creators: This is a trend – but we still mostly talk Duolingo when we talk creators becoming brands. See you in December. ⏳

• Creators Begin to Disrupt Sports: Did you see the Fanatics Fest?  If I had added that athletes become creators then I’d give myself a win.  But it’s still just halftime. ⏳

 ⏳ ❌ FAIL: Let’s Pretend I Never Said That

• GenZ Fades as Gen Alpha Ascends: I was probably early here – no seismic shifts yet, and with six months to go I’ll call this a fail. ❌

 FINAL TALLY

✅ PASS: 12

⏳ INCOMPLETE: 3

❌ FAIL: 1

Overall it’s a 92% success rate on my predictions, which either means I’m really good at this, or I made a lot of obvious predictions.   Or I’m your favorite lax teacher again.  All of these could also be true.

Next week I’ll have a look at trends I expect to develop in 2025 – and 2026 as well!

 JOIN ME AT OPEN SAUCE!

Want to hear from execs at Patreon, GM, Invisalign, NASA, and creators like Michael Reeves, William Osman, and Matty Benedetto? Join me July 18 for Creator Industry Day at Open Sauce. Workshops. Roundtables. Backstage chats with YouTube’s algorithm team and Mark Rober’s crew.  Our full agenda is up and available here.

Use code OSICE1025 for 10% off a 3-Day Industry + Festival Pass. Just a few discounted tickets left.

Finally, you are all welcome to join our Bay Area Creator Economy meetup Thursday night just across the highway from the event. It’s free and open to all!  Register today!

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Let me know what you think – email me at [email protected]. Thanks for reading and see you around the internet.