TikTok Is Just a Pawn

💡 TOP STORIES

HURRY UP AND WAIT

The TikTok sale deadline has been pushed out another 75 days – which takes us to June 19th, 2025 (ironically the opening day of VidCon 2025). We’ve got new bidders, apparently – including Amazon, the founder of OnlyFans and more. A deal was apparently in place, but the huge new tariffs slapped on China reportedly scuttled the deal. I called this back in December and then in early Feb – TikTok is now a bargaining chip in the broader US <> China geopolitical dance. Would China abandon TikTok in the US as part of the broader trade war? It’s a non-trivial possibility.

Wondering how many days until either the deal gets done or another deadline gets set? Bookmark http://tiktokcountdownclock.comFlorem, Ipsum, DolarFrom Vox/Verge study

IMAGINING OUR AI FUTURE IN 2028

The new “AI Futures Project” just released a fascinating and chilling forecast on how AI might develop over the next few years. They lay out two scenarios that seem eerily plausible. It reads like science fiction, but the authors seem legit. Worth reading to the end. I expect a flurry of counterpoints, debunkery and debate. Which is healthy. HT @Cathy Hackl.

LIES, DAMN LIES, AND VIEW COUNTS

With YouTube embracing the TikTok and Instagram method for counting shorts views, it’s clear: The view metric means nothing. It joins most others– including subscribers, followers, likes and comments – as merely a vanity metric. Clearly we need a way to measure creators. Perhaps it’s a first-party metric of products sold – like what Motom offers – or something else that reflects the true adhesion between creator and community. @Rob Gabel tried to fix this problem back in 2020 with Tubular’s Audience Ratings, but it never really took off. I feel for brands trying to make sense of a world where nothing is as it seems – but this crap has been going on for almost 20 years and I see no sign of it ever ending.

HERE COMES THE NEW BOSS… SAME AS THE OLD BOSS

The fourth wave of the creator economy won’t actually be dominated by creators, according to a fascinating think piece from @Matt Gielen with an assist from other creator economy leaders.  He argues that the rise of digital studios, led by creator entrepreneurs, will create the next big media powerhouses.  Gielen points to Dhar Mann, Mythical, Smosh and other conglomerations of congruent creators as the next huge entertainment enterprises.  Dhar Mann’s CEO, Sean Atkins agrees, saying that today’s creator-led media companies are simply the new TV channels.  

Much of their analysis makes sense, but I think the risks are being downplayed and something else important gets lost.  First, Gielen doesn’t believe AI has a chance to unseat real creators, while I’m already seeing Gen Alpha, Gen Z – and even some older folks – developing real adhesion to NPCs (or maybe NHCs, for non-human characters).  Why?  

Because one-way parasocial relationships are ultimately unfulfilling – no matter how much you love them, they don’t love you back.  AI constructs are rapidly gaining a superior EQ to go with IQ, and time spent with your personal Pokebeast will be far more satisfying than watching S12E06 of Beast Games. 

And the rise of participatory creator-built experiences will supplant flat 2D entertainment for many viewers.  Spend some time on Gorilla Tag or Roblox to get a sense of what’s happening here.  These media advances won’t kill YouTube – just as video didn’t kill radio.  But together they’ll siphon away time spent by a significant amount.

But it’s the community nature of creator-first content that will truly get lost by those feeding the TV experience.  We’ve become far more appreciative of creators just like us rather than formatted glitzware of big-screen megaphone media – whether served via broadcast, AVOD, SVOD or YouTube.

Digital Studios will certainly supplant many traditional studios.  And creator-led channels will increasingly dethrone traditional TV channels.  But the increasing rate of technological change will put the squeeze on lean-back big screen experiences – whether produced by creator-led digital studios or traditional media.  And there will always be new types of participatory media and relatable community-first creators to capture the hearts of fans everywhere.  

😎 SPONSOR

Whalar Group’s Creator and social agency, Whalar has been named Campaign UK’s Social Media agency of the year! Whalar has been focused on elevating social and Creator marketing from a game of likes and followers, to a sophisticated, outcomes-driven discipline rooted in accountability, creativity, and innovation. Additionally, Whalar EMEA President Emma Harman was named Campaign UK’s Head of Agency (Digital) Leader of the Year. Check out all the recent winners here: https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/social-media-agency-year-2024/1911101.

💡 PLATFORMS

YOUTUBE

• Shorts Upgrades: YouTube continues keep the heat on TikTok, with a refresh to its video editor and an ability to sync music to action – among other new features.

• YouTube Monetization Primer:  Amjad Hanif – YouTube’s head of creator products – shares 10 ways YouTube helps creators make money.

META

• You Fired:  No more Meta fact checkers as of today in the US.

• Enhanced Verification: Meta adds more scrutiny to its paid verification product.

TIKTOK

• We Hardly Knew Ye: TikTok shuts down Notes, its photo-based Instagram killer and refocuses on Lemon8.

• Can You Hear Me Now?  TikTok launches rolls out new analytics to help musicians track their performance. 

• Long Shot: A look at how Project Liberty would decentralize TikTok and give users their data back – if it wins the bid.

• TV Shopping Channel Embraces Creators:  QVC just rebranded itself as a “live social shopping company” and inks a deal with TikTok Shop.  This is where I’d usually add a snarky comment, but they also just brought old friend @Alex Wellen, as President and Chief Growth Officer, which has me cautiously optimistic. 

💡 QUIBIS

OTHER CREATOR ECONOMY

• New Book!  Congrats to @ankur Mehra for the release of his new book on the creator economy – “From Pixels to Profits”!

• Localization Accelerates:  Linguana raises an $8.5M seed to help YouTubers monetize globally.  It’s free, but you do give up significant perpetual rights.  But if you can live with the terms, it could be nicely accretive.  Just remember – AI is rapidly improving, so what’s almost magic today could become pedestrian tomorrow.

• Non-Profits Lean In:  Good story about how one non-profit used creators and social video to drive donations and impact.

• Brands Take Note: A look inside the Duolingo writers room.

• MYFlix:  Vimeo launches a new product that lets anyone create their own streaming service.

• Asian Quibi Clones Thrive:  The top five sites have 150 million active users a month, and earned over $450M in revenue last year according to an Omnia report.

• Don’t Cry For Me Argentina: Pity the poor studio head – it’s no longer the best job in Hollywood.

• Not All Managers Suck:  @leslie morgan tries to change the narrative, explaining how good managers truly power a creator’s business.  

• Podcasts on Netflix:  The big streamer looks to add video podcasts to its platform in an attempt to blunt YouTube’s emerging growth.

• SubTok? Substack’s building a TikTok-like video feed into its app.

• Marketing or Mission?  I hit a nerve with my video last week expanding on Cannes’ and Billion Dollar Boy’s new program gifting free admission to selected creators.  Read the comments for more – and I’ll report back next week with more insight on what ELSE we can expect from this new fund.m

CREATOR TECH – AI, WEB3, VR, MORE

• The Next Minecraft?  Caught up with old friend @Jake Zim, now running marketing at Gorilla Tag.  Was fascinated by the creators using this VR game as a canvas for storytelling, including @jmancurly and @jawclamps.  Time to dust off the Oculus.

• SciFi Movie:  Watch this great three minute trailer – all AI generated – for a presumably upcoming AI movie (when the tech improves).  

100% written by me – no human or AI ghostwriters were involved in the production (except for the cover art!).

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Let me know what you think – email me at [email protected]. Thanks for reading and see you around the internet.