TikTok Wobbles

Hi, I’m Jim Louderback and this is my weekly creator economy newsletter.  If you’ve received it, then you are either subscribed or someone forwarded it to you.

If the latter – and you want to subscribe, get it here!

This Week: One week into the great TikTok experiment, and things are looking, well, uncertain.  Plus, Open AI’s new Operator, YouTube and Instagram both share algorithmic secrets and surprising results from Edelman’s trust barometer, LTK’s 2025 Creator survey and the global state of mobile.

TIKTOK UPDATE

What a whirlwind week.  President Trump promised a 75-day reprieve for TikTok, a promise that’s likely not legally binding.  Despite Oracle and other Amazon re-enabling the app, it’s still not available from Apple and Google’s app stores – along with Capcut, Lemon8 and other Bytedance apps.  Why?  G&A’s conservative legal teams want to avoid the potential $500B+ liability from violating the terms of the TikTok divest/ban law.  And yes, HR 7521 is still the law of the land.  In addition, many creators and users decry the overt politicization of their favorite platform and the emotional effects of the psychic roller-coaster.  Other platforms continue to woo TikTok creators, advertisers and users.  New consulting services popped up like weeds to help creators transition away from the wobbling platform – some legit, some naked cash grabs (caveat emptor).  Building on rented land straddling a geopolitical fault line clearly isn’t the best for sustainable careers – or proper sleep hygiene.  Here are a few of last week’s notable developments:

• Bytedance Board member says “A deal will get done”.

• Oracle, Microsoft, Frank McCourt and more – President Trump says a deal should be done in 30 days.  Trump says he hasn’t chatted with Oracle’s Larry Ellison, but I’ll bet he’s deep in conversation with his son David (Skydance).  Perhaps Paramount and TikTok will merge after all (Viacom took a run at Musical.ly pre-Bytedance). Whatever happens, it still doesn’t comply with the language of HR 7521.

• Nepotism anyone?  Brother of US Attorney General nominee Pam Bondi (who would be tasked with enforcing HR 7521) is leading MR Beast’s bid to buy TikTok.

• A lawyer looks at why Apple and Google can’t just reinstate downloads with impunity.

• Since you can’t download it in the US, used phones with TikTok installed are listed for thousands of dollars on Ebay.  Unclear if anyone has been dumb enough to buy one, though.  Save your money - the APK for Android is readily available.  It’s harder on IOS, but this Reddit thread explains how.  Perhaps hire a geek to help – lots available on Taskrabbit  for around $80 an hour.

• Kicking the US out made for a better TikTok experience elsewhere.

• It’s not just TikTok – building on rented land has been a bad idea for a long time. 

• Concern globally as TikTok began silencing Palestinian advocacy in the US shortly after Sunday’s reinstatement.

• Related: Why “Cute Winter Boots” are all over the TikTok version M, and how creators are circumventing the new algorithmic changes.

• Related:  @Phil Ranta says “the vibe is gone” and that’s bad for TikTok whatever happens.

LET’S PLAY OPERATOR

OpenAi’s new model takes the first step towards Agent AI.  If it works, it could substantively help creators uplevel their operation, including finding and booking location shoots, saving money on travel, uncovering talented freelancers and more. Currently in beta for paid users, Operator scours the web and returns results for you – and will presumably take action as well.  It failed my tests, focused on finding low-cost airfare and award tickets on certain routes.  But others got it to work – here’s an early first look.  @Sam Lessin of Slow Ventures has a more pessimistic take on Operator’s efficacy, honed by working on the problem 10 years ago.  Watch this space, but don’t expect any near-term relief.

INSIDE THE YOUTUBE ALGORITHM 2025

So great to see YouTube execs @todd beaupre and @rene ritchie back explaining how YouTube’a algorithm works today..  It’s all about automating word of mouth, as the algorithm first finds other viewers like you and then recommends what they liked. The key concept? Every user has their own constantly changing algorithm – which is both fascinating and scary.  They also discuss how older videos resurface, how “time of day” factors in, and that there’s no “one number” to rule them all.   They also share tips for creators dubbing across multiple languages, including the importance of translating titles and descriptions and the value of dubbing lots of your videos, not just a handful. Their advice?  Focus on depth with fewer languages instead of dubbing just a few across many.

At the end of the video they explore how LLMs augment the algorithm with deeper insight into what’s actually in a video and the emotions involved – and how YouTube applies that to recommendations.  Not everything in the video is new – Todd and Rene shared some of these concepts on stage at VidCon and Open Sauce last year. But when Todd and Rene speak – you should absolutely listen! 

TRUST?  WHAT TRUST?  

Edelman releases its 2025 Trust Barometer report and finds waning trust in institutions, government, media and more.  And a shocking 40% think hostile activism offers an acceptable avenue to drive change.  Looking to relocate to a more trusting society?  Singapore, India and UAE might be the best bets.  The report also lays out ways to rebuild trust – focus on compassion - and a look at who is trusted the most (TLDR, Scientists and Teachers).  @Jeff Jarvis breaks the report down and adds historical context.

SPONSOR:  Sheetz teams up with Umi Games, part of Whalar Group, to launch “Sheetz Run: Only Up!”—an exclusive Fortnite map filled with iconic Sheetz menu items. This immersive gaming experience lets players compete for a prize pool while showcasing Sheetz’s innovative brand engagement. Read more here: https://www.lbbonline.com/news/sheetz-makes-history-with-the-launch-of-an-immersive-convenience-store-and-exclusive-fortnite-map

QUIBIS    

YOUTUBE

• War on Two Fronts:  @Mike Sheilds questions whether YouTube can successfully compete – and beat – Netflix and TikTok simultaneously.

• New Premium Features:  If you pay, you’ll like these additions.  If you don’t, they probably won’t push you over the edge.

META

• Instagram Algorithmic Ranking Explained:  CEO Adam Mosseri launches a video series explaining how ranking works on Instagram.  Video 2 lays out five criteria for making sure your videos get shown to non-followers, including eschewing watermarks, and the importance of audio.

• Bonuses for TikTokers: Meta woos TikTok creators with its “Breakthrough Bonus” campaign – earn up to $5,000.  Some creators are being offered 10x that much. Unfortunately, that might be all you’ll ever get from Big Blue.

• Panic at the Meta:  New Chinese AI model DeepSeek has whipped Meta’s AI team into a frenzy.  The new model offers o1 level reasoning for a fraction of the cost.  It’s also available in a near open-source mode called “Open Weight”.  The DeepSeek research doc is worth perusing for more context.

TIKTOK

• Bytedance AI Advances:  The latest Doubao 1.5 model joins DeepSeek as an impressive advancement for China-developed AI models.  It reportedly beats OpenAI, and Google Gemini in some tests, and was trained on far cheaper hardware.  @Gary Marcus thinks this spells doom for OpenAI – a company he’s often critical of.

• Brain Drain: TikTok employees have been jumping ship at nearly 2x the going rate over the last few months.  10% have decamped for Meta.

OTHER CREATOR ECONOMY

• Schools <> Mobiles:  New York state governor wants to ban cell phones at school, and Pinterest CEO Bill Ready agrees.  I’m a fan, although it’s tricky during an emergency.  If this trend accelerates, expect some creators to take a hit.

• Break Your Teleprompter: I mostly stay out of politics, but old friend @tristan Snell explores how Republicans have embraced the creator age, while Democrats are still mostly TV-bound.  A new Bloomberg study goes deeper.

• Crafting Viral:  Interesting case study on the six step process Jack Pockets used to drive channel growth. 

• Africa Ascendant:  Nice story on how Nigerian creator Fisayo Longe built a fashion company focused on unique products – and an essay on Nollywood’s potential to become a global content hub ($).

• VCs Embrace Social Shopping: Congrats to the team at ShopMy for raising a $77M series B from top VCs, including Bessemer, Menlo Ventures and Bain Capital.

• TikTok -> Tumblr:  Tumblr launches a new short-form vertical video tab called TumblrTV, yet another TikTok alternative – although most of the videos I watched (except for the humor channel) were shot landscape and shoved into a portrait window.  Presumably that will change.

• Like and Subscribe:  Great to see @natalie Jarvey launching a newsletter on The Ankler focused on the creator economy.  Jarvey’s an old pro around the creator space and I’m happy she’s back.

• No Fun League Returns: NFL tells teams they can’t use Bluesky, according to Patriots Unfiltered podcast. The team is also looking for a cross-posting service, if you’ve got one handy.

• So Sad: Colin and Samir talk about losing their homes in the LA Fires.  Please donate to help all the victims of the fire.

• $100M Creator Fund:  @Avi Gandhi breaks down Flip’s $100M creator fund and whether it’s worthwhile for creators to participate.

• More Flexible Financing:  Gigastar’s lifetime revshare model didn’t sit well with many creators – including me.  Now they’ve added 3 and 5-year “Channel Revenue Tokens” along with the lifetime option. Better, but for anyone considering this – or other financing – be careful and read the fine-print!

• Sharing is Caring: Creative Commons lays out its four year strategic plan, focusing on an open infrastructure for sharing and building a thriving creative commons to keep knowledge accessible, discoverable and reusable.

• Paradise Lost:  Wonder why I don’t trust Forbes?  Because it’s not a content business.  It’s a club with an outsized focus on link-spam marketing.

• Wakey Wakey: Old media wakes up, plans to compete with new media by copying formats and cutting staff.

• Maybe We Don’t WANT To Be Entertained: Chinese ecommerce apps have nailed shoppertainment.  But it hasn’t really caught on in the western world.  Perhaps it never will.

CREATOR TECH – AI, WEB3, VR, MORE

• Creator Payouts: Epic paid creators over $350M in 2024 for building custom islands –still less than half of Roblox’ revshare – but growing fast.

• New 3D Model Capture:  Why Gaussian splatting could be the breakthrough creators need to capture spaces and tell interactive stories.  It’s all about moving from polygons to blobs.

• AI vs. Film:  New flap over the use of AI in creating the movie “Brutalist” uncovers the petty fears and shallow imaginations of many in the film industry.  

RESEARCH

• The Decline of Social Media:  New research from LTK looks at creators, video and shopping.  Interesting findings, including how half of GenZ and Millennials want community separate from social media platforms and that creators are more trusted the celebs or ads.  Plus, video rules. The full report is accessible only after signing up for a webinar – and the link was broken at press time.  Hopefully it will be fixed quickly.

• The State of Mobile:  Last week it was gaming, this week mobile.  Sensor Tower’s annual report explores mobile AI, how apps are outpacing games, and the rise of finance, crypto and retail. Download the PDF by hovering over the upper right corner of the report until the three dots appear.

Where’s Jim:  Mostly in the SF Bay Area, catching up and planning NAB’s Creator Lab and Open Sauce (ping me if you want to speak).  I briefly referenced a Talking Heads song last week, which prompted me to watch “Stop Making Sense” again – the concert movie directed by Jonathan Demme that changed the medium forever.  Beyond “Making Flippy Floppy”, much of the other music is still relevant too relevant.  Well worth a (re)watch.  Also reread Interesting Times from Terry Pratchett.  Seemed relevant too.

100% written by me – no human or AI ghostwriters were involved in the production (except for the cover art!).

Like this free newsletter?  Buy me a coffee and say thanks!  Or let’s do a meetup in your town.

I've built and sold multiple creator economy startups to top media companies - including Discovery and Paramount. Subscribe here on LinkedIn to get this newsletter every Monday.

Let me know what you think – email me at [email protected]. Thanks for reading and see you around the internet.