YouTube’s Evil Twin

💡 TOP STORIES

IS YOUTUBE TURNING INTO CABLE?

Highlighting the perils of expanding into adjacent businesses, YouTube is under fire for decisions around YouTubeTV.  Launched as the modern antidote to bloated cable bundles, instead it’s beginning to inherit age-old cable problems. TelevisaUnivision just accused Big Red of imposing a “Hispanic Tax,” blasting YouTube as “evil” for moving Univision out of the $83 core package and into a $15 Spanish-language tier. 

The optics are brutal: a key broadcaster framing YouTube as discriminatory against U.S. Latinos at a time when families can least afford it. By expanding into traditional TV distribution, YouTube is learning the hard way: when you play cable games, you get cable fights… and risk undermining your brand promise of being open and accessible to all. (Axios)

SUBSCRIPTION REVENUE PAYS OFF?

Back in early 2024 I predicted that YouTube would lean hard into subscriptions, nudging free users towards the margin. The latest carriage flaps made me wonder…  is it worth it to big Red?  Based on some back-of-envelope math, it seems likely.  Roughly 35-45M of America’s 133M households pay YouTube some sort of monthly subscription.  That includes about 9.5M on YouTube TV, 1M buying Sunday Ticket, 30M+ on Premium/Music, and another 1.5M via channel memberships.  After adjusting for overlap, that’s roughly three in ten households.  Impressive.  Still, Neflix likely has twice as many US subs, so there’s room to grow.   However, I still worry about those left behind because they can't afford to pay... and potential brand hits from cable-style brouhahas.

NOTE, YouTube doesn’t release these numbers, but it’s unlikely the total is below 35 million.

SEARCH SPLINTERS AS TIKTOK RISES

TikTok’s new study finds that GenZ is almost as likely to search on TikTok (86%) vs. Google (90%) in any given week.   Fascinating, but that’s weekly reach, not search volume. Google still dwarfs TikTok in raw searches per week, even for GenZ.  News coverage framed it like Google was being dethroned but that’s not the case.  The real insight? Search is no longer a Google monopoly.  Social platforms capture intent around inspiration, where creators “just like me” are as influential as a neighbor, and are far more trusted than brands.  But AI’s rising as a tool for synthesis of information from multiple sources, while traditional engines still dominate when people want quick, verified answers.

Search hasn’t moved…  it’s multiplied.  TikTok’s own “Spectrum of Search Intent” findings underscore the shift, as different tools serve different needs depending on whether you’re exploring, learning, solving, or buying. (Tubefilter, TikTok, Download Study)

SPECTRUM OF SEARCH

WHERE HAVE ALL THE BUYERS GONE

Big-ticket acquisitions by top social platforms are over, says new research from @James Creech and Quartermast Advisors. Why? Because social video has matured. It’s no longer about hyper-growth and new users.  Now it’s about stealing watch-time and features from competitors. That’s why YouTube leans into TV, Facebook into VR, and TikTok into commerce.  Macroeconomics and regulation play a role too, along with higher interest rates. Deals still happen, but they’re mostly acquihires and tuck-ins.  Rollups continue (see Bending Spoons buying Vimeo), and AI startups are next as valuations cool and talent costs stay high. With the creator economy going global, look for more international targets like Tokopedia… and ad agencies on an influencer marketing shopping spree.  (LinkedIn)

TIPS AND GIFTS NOW TAX FREE!

The US Treasury Department just clarified who qualifies for the “No Tax on Tips” portion of the new laws passed over the summer.  Creators, surprisingly, are on the list.  That will significantly impact how creators manage their revenue mix. The Apple store may steal 30%, but now the government is giving some of that back!  Patreon, Kajabi and other monetization platforms are surely adding in new features and tweaking existing ones to reflect the change.  And yes, you can already tip me by Buying Me A (now tax free) Coffee.  (THR)

OATLY FUMBLES YOUTUBE

I love Oatly’s oat milk, but their social team needs a reboot.  @zach Honarvar, one of the best YouTube strategists today, called out Oatly’s polished new series for its weak titles and thumbnails.  While the content was solid, it barely cracked 300 views per episode, proving that the wrapper is as important as what’s inside.

Instead of learning, Oatly’s social team dismissed Zach’s advice as “clickbait” tactics, and wore their flop like a badge of honor. That defensive posture shows a keen lack of platform insight.  They wouldn’t sell oat milk in a plain white carton, so why defend their generic old-school YouTube packaging?  Oatly may know oats, but if YouTube were a farm they'd be harvesting rocks. (LinkedIn, Oatly YouTube)

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💡 PLATFORMS

YOUTUBE

• C’est What: Multi-Language Audio (MLA) expands to millions more creators globally.  Imperfect tech, but ubiquity and free make it a huge equalizer for small and mid-sized creators. (YouTube)

• Slop Squared: Veo3 now supports vertical video and 1080p.  Expect short-form slop to multiply. (The Verge)

• Whole Lotta Eyeballs: Despite the beastly confusion, YouTube’s NFL broadcast delivered unprecedented views!  (YouTube)

META

• Small But Mighty: Short-form videos overtake TV viewing in India, per Meta. (Mint)

• Reels Tops in India: Five years after TikTok’s ban, Reels leads…  foreshadowing what?  (Meta) 

TIKTOK

• So Sad: Five years later, this is still the loneliest page on the internet.  (TikTok)

• Spurned: I can’t believe my new bestie Ed Sheeran didn’t invite me to his TikTok live performance Saturday. (TikTok)

💡 QUIBIS

OTHER CREATOR ECONOMY

• Snap At 14: Snap CEO Evan Speigel posts an open letter as ad growth slows and users decline. (Snap)

• There’s Still Hope: Great story about how creator Hopescope works with brands.  See Hope and her husband on stage at 1 Billion Followers Summit in January! (Google)

• Unknown Knowables: Now we know how @Hank Green’s Bean ended up with a butt crack. (We’re Here).  

• Brands and Apples: LTK adds brand profiles and integrates into Apple’s visual intelligence search.  This would be great for ChatGPT, Perplexity, etc. too.  (IG)

• Clean-Up on Aisle C:  China mandates labeling for AI-generated text, images, video.  That’s going to require some content clean-up for many.  (China Law Translate)

• Costly Mistake: Nepal lifts social media ban (BBC)

• India Ascendant:  New data shows India’s creator economy surging.  (Social Nation)

• Salish Scores!  80,000 fans tried to jam into NJ’s American Dream mall for Salish Matter’s skincare launch.   A product that fits her community, is affordably priced…  and with an industry vet as CEO.  Primed for long-term success.  (Julia Straus, Bergen Record)

• Idea Whack Pack: Seven viral content ideas.  I might try a “Lazy PowerPoint” one to push Beehiiv subs. (Social Growth Engineers, My Beehiiv)

• The Megaphone Startup: Two attention-first startups using meme stunts and creator houses to stand-out in a hyper-competitive world.  (34^th Street)

• The Attention Rat-Race:  “The ‘creator economy’ is just unpaid R&D for platforms”.  Thoughtful read. (Around the Bonfire)

• Recapturing Lost Glory: “Buzzfeed Video” relaunches on YouTube with Try Guys, puppies and new programs.   Will views return?  (YouTube, Business Wire)

• More Money for Creators: Gigastar crowdfunds $4M to help creators raise more of their own.  (Net Influencer).  

• Vimeo Sold: Vimeo exits for $1.4B to Italian roll-up company Bending Spoons.  Expect leaner ops, faster product cycles, fewer frills and an AI-heavy reboot. But hopefully not an Evernote-style “streamline”. (Vimeo)

CREATOR TECH – AI, AR, VR, MORE

• The Oracle Speaks: Danny Sullivan explains how to optimize for AI search engines.  TLDR: keep doing what you’re doing.   (YouTube)

• Related: A study says that customers are using all sorts of search all the time, so focus on both SEO and AI optimization (Amsive – HT @Benedict Evans)

• AI Darwin Awards: I’m so happy we now have an AI version of the hilariously tragic Darwin awards.  You can peruse the nominations – and make one yourself – prior to voting in January. (AI Darwin Awards)

• Chatbot Scrutiny: Feds focus on Meta, Google and OpenAI in new kids-related crack-down.  (ZDNet, FTC)

• SXSW Parent Cries Foul:  Penske Media joins Chegg in suing Google for its AI Summaries (WSJ $)

• Unsung Heroes: Sam Altman calls out OpenAI’s Jakub Pachocki and Szymon Sidor in his infrequently updated blog. (Sam Altman)

📊 RESEARCH

Teens Love YouTube: New PreciseTV data shows how much Gen Z teens drive the economy. YouTube leads the pack with 91% usage, up 14% year over year, compared to TikTok and Instagram at 75%. It’s not just for entertainment: YouTube drives more annoying “buy this for me” requests than TikTok or Instagram. The study also found AI is now mainstream in teen life, with ChatGPT and Gemini topping the charts. (PreciseTV)

100% written by me – no human or AI ghostwriters were involved in the production (except for the cover art!) and AI was very lightly used for editing.

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